David Cummings on Startups

Bet on the Horse, Course, or Jockey

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David Cummings

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Earlier today I was talking to a technology investor and I asked the question, “what types of startups and opportunities are you looking for in the area?” He stopped, looked up, and said he characterizes things in three buckets by betting on the horse, jockey, or course:

  • Horse – the specific business idea
  • Jockey – the entrepreneurs/co-founders/management team
  • Course – the market or vertical for the business idea

Of course, I’d heard the horse and jockey concept many times before but this was the first time “course” came up and I really liked it. When evaluating a specific idea (horse), the market or vertical (course) is extremely important as most of the time the idea that becomes successful isn’t the idea that the team started out with. The horse and course need to be evaluated together as much as they are evaluated apart.

What else? What are your thoughts on the terms horse, jockey, or course?

Comments

6 responses to “Bet on the Horse, Course, or Jockey”

  1. John McCarthy Avatar
    John McCarthy

    It just made. Me take a pivot withy business idea.

    Reply
  2. Luis Gonzalez Avatar
    Luis Gonzalez

    Bet on the jockey.. The course will change and the horse has blinders.. But it’s the jockeys vision of the course that guides the horse… If the jockeys can stay on the horse during the bumpy curvy course.. He may win the race…

    Reply
  3. Irv Grossman Avatar
    Irv Grossman

    David,
    I really like this post! Very thought provoking. A great jockey can make a great horse; but the opposite sounds impossible. There are fewer bettors who may show up at a poor course. There is also the situation where a good horse, with a good jockey is on a great track, the odds aren’t too good, but the payout is higher.
    Mint Julep anyone?

    Reply
  4. Paul O'Callaghan Avatar
    Paul O’Callaghan

    Always the jockey; many poor jockeys have lost the race on a great course, starting with Xerox and continuing on for the past 30 years

    Reply
  5. Daryl Lu Avatar
    Daryl Lu

    Great article, David! I’d say Jockey. Though, maybe I’d add a fourth option: the Team inclusive of the Jockey, the horse caregiver, the Jockey’s trainer, etc.

    Everything comes down to the team (read: the people behind company, group, sports team). A strong team can implement bad ideas and do great. However, a weak team with a great idea may still flounder; even if successful at the start, a weak team wouldn’t be able to sustain positive momentum.

    A Jockey alone isn’t enough to win a race either. Takes a strong supporting cast.

    Reply
  6. Seth O. Ayers Avatar
    Seth O. Ayers

    Betting on the horse, jockey, or course in startups is about balancing a great idea (horse), a skilled team (jockey), and a suitable market (course). Success hinges on aligning these elements, recognizing that execution within the right context is key.

    Reply

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